Contact:
Richard Wobbekind, Leeds School, 303-492-1147
[email protected]
Brian Lewandowski, Leeds School, 303-492-3307
[email protected]
Elizabeth Lock, CU-Boulder media relations, 303-492-3117
[email protected]
Dec. 7, 2015
Colorado employment will continue to expand in 2016, adding a variety of jobs in almost every business sector, but at a slower pace than in the previous two years, according to economist Richard Wobbekind of the University of Colorado Boulder’s Leeds School of Business.
Wobbekind’s announcement was part of the 51st annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum presented December 7, 2015 by the Leeds School’s Business Research Division.
The comprehensive outlook report for 2016 features forecasts and trends for 13 business sectors prepared by more than 100 key business, government and industry professionals.
“Colorado will remain one of the top growth states nationally in 2016,” said Wobbekind, who’s also the senior associate dean for academic programs at the Leeds School. “We benefit from being a very desirable state where people want to live and work, allowing us to attract top talent.”
Overall, the forecast calls for a gain of 65,100 jobs, or growth of 2.6 percent, in Colorado in 2016. All but the state’s natural resources and mining industry are predicted to grow in 2016, though the information industry will see only modest gains.
“Natural resources and mining primarily comprises the oil and gas industry in the state, as well as coal, molybdenum and other minerals,” said Wobbekind. “Overall, these sectors have been reacting to lower commodity prices that impact the feasibility of projects.”
The strongest sector for projected job growth in the report is the professional and business services sector, which is expected to add 15,500 jobs. Related to Colorado’s high-tech industries and research institutions, the state’s concentration of professional, scientific and technical services is 33 percent higher than the nation.
Other leading job growth sectors for 2016 include the education and health services sector, which is expected to add 10,900 jobs; and the trade, transportation and utilities sector, which is expected to add 10,800 jobs.
The trade, transportation and utilities sector encompasses wholesale and retail trade, as well as industries that provide transportation of passengers and cargo, including Denver International Airport and gas pipelines. Utilities also are in this sector.
The construction sector, one of the hardest hit sectors during the Great Recession, is expected to add 9,700 jobs in 2016. With household formation continuing to exceed available units and increases in nonresidential and infrastructure building, Colorado is poised to record the highest value of construction since 2006.
Colorado’s unemployment rate is expected to remain below 4 percent in 2016, which is comparatively better than the national unemployment rate.
“Colorado is now staring at full employment,” said Wobbekind. “With such a low unemployment rate and a decreasing labor participation rate, continued in-migration will be integral to supporting economic growth across the state.”
Colorado’s population is the fourth-fastest growing by percentage behind North Dakota, Nevada and Texas. The state’s population is projected to grow by about 95,000 people to a total of about 5.5 million people in 2016.
To view the entire economic outlook for Colorado in 2016 including other sectors, such as leisure and hospitality, agriculture, financial activities and government, visit the Business Research Division website.
For audio of Richard Wobbekind discussing Colorado’s 2016 economic outlook, click here.
CEO Expectations for the Economy Worsen
For the Fourth Year in a Row, Regulation Cited as CEOs’ Top Cost Pressure
Washington – For the third quarter in a row, CEOs expressed growing caution about the U.S. economy’s near-term prospects and indicated they are moderating their plans for capital investment over the next six months, according to the Business Roundtable fourth quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, released today.
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index – a composite of CEO projections for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months – declined 6.6 points, from 74.1 in the third quarter of 2015 to 67.5 in the fourth quarter. This third consecutive quarterly decline brought the Index to its lowest level in three years.
For the first six months of 2016, CEO expectations for sales decreased by 3.2 points and their plans for capital expenditures decreased by 16.7 points. Hiring plans were essentially unchanged from last quarter when they declined by nearly 8 points.
In their first estimate of real GDP growth for 2016, CEOs expect 2.4 percent growth.
“Lower expectations for sales and investment reflect CEOs’ ongoing caution about the near-term prospects for U.S. economic growth,” said Randall Stephenson, Chairman of Business Roundtable, and Chairman and CEO of AT&T Inc. “Congress and the Administration need to work together to continue to fund the government, expand trade, agree on a long-term transportation infrastructure investment plan, reauthorize the U.S. Export-Import Bank and renew expired tax provisions.”
Stephenson continued, “It makes no sense to allow tax policies, such as bonus depreciation and the R&D Tax Credit, to expire this year absent broader corporate tax reform.”
In response to a question posed annually in the fourth quarter, CEOs, once again, reported that regulation was the top cost pressure facing their businesses, followed by labor costs and health care costs. “If we want to see the U.S. economy and hiring really take off, Washington needs to adopt a smarter approach to regulation,” Stephenson added.
Fourth Quarter 2015 Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index – a composite index of CEO plans for the next six months of sales, capital spending and employment – declined from 74.1 in the third quarter of 2015 to 67.5 in the fourth quarter of 2015. The long-term average of the Index is 80.1.
About the Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly since the fourth quarter of 2002, provides a forward-looking view of the economy by Business Roundtable member CEOs. The survey is designed to provide a picture of the future direction of the U.S. economy by asking CEOs to report their plans for their company’s sales, capex and employment in the next six months. The data are used to create the Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index and sub-indices for sales, capex and hiring expectations – diffusion indices that range between -50 and 150 – where readings at 50 or above indicate an economic expansion, and readings below 50 indicate an economic contraction. A diffusion index is defined as the percentage of respondents who report that a measure will increase, minus the percentage who report that the measure will decrease.
The fourth quarter 2015 survey was completed between Oct. 14 and Nov. 4, 2015. Responses were received from 140 member CEOs. The percentages in some categories may not equal 100 due to rounding. Results of this and all previous surveys can be found at www.brt.org/resources/ceo-survey.